Introduction: Recently, domestic ethylene glycol plants have been swinging between the restart of coal chemical industry and the integrated production conversion. The changes in the start-up of existing plants have caused the balance of supply and demand in the market to change again in the later stage.
Coal Chemical Industry – Multiple Restart Plans
Currently, the price of coal in domestic ports fluctuates around 1100. From the perspective of economic benefits, domestic and foreign coal mining plants are still in a loss state, but some plants still have plans to restart based on the perspective of devices.

From the current device plan, several devices that were shut down last year have now been restarted by Hongsifang, Huayi, Tianye, and Tianying; In the later stage, Henan and Guanghui also have plans to restart; After the overhaul in March, Guizhou Qianxi plans to restart in early April. The existing maintenance plan for April is not centralized. In addition to the 1.8 million ton unit load increase of Shaanxi Coal, the overall coal chemical production plan for April is expected to be around 400000 tons.
Integration – partial cashing, partial conversion is still under observation
The traditional conversion is mainly based on the production regulation of ethylene oxide/ethylene glycol. The current price of ethylene oxide is around 7200. From the perspective of price comparison, the economic benefits of producing ethylene oxide are currently superior to that of ethylene glycol. However, due to the storage limitations of ethylene oxide and the current flat demand for water reducing agent monomers, most enterprises experience price increases in ethylene oxide but sales are hindered. Therefore, the probability of increasing ethylene oxide production by compressing ethylene glycol in the later stage of traditional process devices is very limited.
With the diversified layout of large refining and chemical plants, more optimized configurations have been made for the downstream selectivity of ethylene in the three major domestic refining and chemical integrated plants in the later stage. For example, increasing ethylene oxide while self blending downstream, adding styrene, vinyl acetate, and other products to balance ethylene consumption. In April, the heavy refining and chemical constant force maintenance, Zhejiang Petrochemical, and satellite load reduction gradually realized, but the specific degree of realization still needs to be further clarified.
Construction of new devices may be delayed
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Currently, Sanjiang and Yuneng Chemical have high certainty of putting new devices into production; The probability that production is basically determined after the middle of the year. There is currently no clear production plan for other devices.
Based on the current supply side changes and future plant plans, it is expected that polyester production will remain relatively stable from March to April. It is expected that there will still be expectation of destocking from the perspective of social balance, but the overall scope of destocking is relatively limited.